Floods In Pakistan Have Most Likely Been Exacerbated By Climate Change

Human-caused climate change appears to have played a role in the devastating floods that have immersed parts of Pakistan in previous weeks, based on a quick analysis issued on Thursday that looked to determine how much climate change was to blame.

According to an international team of climatologists from the Weather Attribution group, rainfall in the worst-affected areas has increased by up to 75% in recent decades, and that man-made action likely bolstered record levels of August precipitation in the Sindh and Balochistan provinces.

Over 33 billion people were impacted by the flooding, which destructed 1.7 million bucks and murdered at least 1,400 people.

The scientists examined weather data and computer models of today's climate to assess the likelihood of such an event happening at approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius of temperature rise caused by human activity since the Industrial Revolution.

They then tried to compare that likelihood to information and simulation models of past climate conditions, which were 1.2 degrees Celsius cooler than today.

They discovered that climate change rose the 5-day total rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan by up to 50%. In our current climatic conditions, there was a 1% chance of such an event happening in any given year, according to the analysis.

"The very same event would possibly have been much less likely in a world without human-induced greenhouse emissions, implying that changing climate likely increased the likelihood of intense rainfall," the team concluded.

The study's authors, however, emphasized that due to historically large variations in monsoonal rainfall over Pakistan, it was neither feasible to conclude that man-made warming significantly contributed to 60-day total rainfall levels.

What we saw in Pakistan was exactly what climate projections predicted for years, says Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in Climate Change science at Imperial College London's Grantham Institute.

While it was difficult to pinpoint the scope to which man-made emission levels contributed to the rainfall, Otto stated that "the traces of global warming are evident."

The World Meteorological Organization announced this week that weather-related tragedies like Pakistan's have expanded fivefold in the last 50 years, killing an average of 115 people per day.

The warning comes as nations prepare for the COP27 climate conference in Egypt in November, in which at-risk nations are demanding here which rich, ancient polluters reimburse them for the damage and loss caused by climate change that is already wreaking havoc on their economic systems and infrastructure.

Pakistan must also ask developed nations to shoulder responsibility and provide modification as well as loss and harm assistance to nations and people bearing the impacts of climate change, he said.

Then there's the issue of compensation for the harm caused by large polluters. Kashmala Kakakhel, a climate finance expert who previously served on the executive committee of the UN's Green Climate Fund, stated that the idea was not novel in the climate change negotiations. 

Since the early 1990s, vulnerable countries have been pleading with developed nations to provide financial assistance to assist them in dealing with the consequences of climate change that exceed what people can adapt to." Such plans have been consistently rejected by developed countries.


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